The employment situation report contains the unemployment rate, nonfarm payrolls and wage information. The report as a whole was mostly in line with the low end of expectations, however payrolls came in at -467,000 well off the largest estimates of -435,000 and a substantial miss from the median consensus estimates of -350,000. The unemployment rate came in slightly better than consensus at 9.5%. Also initial jobless claims were lower than analysts predicted, neither of which helped the markets as they continued to focus on the payrolls throughout the day.

This week Citigroup was again in the headlines when it decided to piss people off in several new ways. With the government adding new restrictions on employee bonuses the bank decided to raise salaries, some up to 50%, in order to retain people they consider “key employees”. In a totally unrelated press release Citi said it would be hiking rates on the credit cards of up to 15 million customers. Citigroup was among the biggest recipients of federal aid receiving more than $45 billion in TARP funds. Since 2006 their stock has tumbled 95% and over the last six quarters they have lost close to $36 billion.

Another very unpopular company was in the news this week, American International Group or AIG effected a 1 for 20 reverse stock split on Wednesday. The measure was overwhelmingly approved by shareholders, but the stock fell over 22% on the day. Before the split the stock was trading at $1.16 per share on Tuesday, but was down more than 20% in the pre-market on Wednesday and closed the day at $18.08 per share. Executives said the move was necessary to prevent the stock from being delisted from the New York Stock Exchange. In a strange coincidence the NYSE erroneously posted a suspension and delisting notice of AIG on the NYSE’s website, the notice was removed once the error was discovered.

Overall the stock markets have turned decidedly negative for the week and it was one of the worst first weeks of July in the history of the markets. For next week market traders will look to earnings as the driving factors for stocks. Alcoa reports its earnings on Tuesday which traditionally begins earnings season. Chevron, 3com, Progressive Corp among others all report their earnings as well. Next week is pretty light on economic data releases the most important ones to watch are jobless claims on Thursday and Consumer Sentiment on Friday.

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Learn swing trading.Frank Russell Company is one of the leading global investment consultants. It is also involved in performance measurement, analysis and investment management. Russell 2000 is the well known benchmark for small capitalization sector. Several Russell Indexes have become benchmarks for specific areas of investment management.

Russell 3000 Index as the name implies includes 3000 issues and is adjusted for certain factors such as cross holdings and the number of pairs in hands. These 3000 companies represent 98% of the US investable equities.

Russell 3000 is further split into subsets like Russell 1000 Index and it covers the top 1000 companies. It is about 92% of the value of the entire 3,000 stock index. The Russell 2000 Index is the smallest 2000 companies in the Russell 3000 Index. It represents about 8% of the value of Russell 3000.

The Wall Street Journal is probably one of the most perfect business franchises from the business point of view. Dow Jones is the publisher of this journal. The net worth of most of its readers is in seven figures. A franchise that is very hard to duplicate.

Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) comprising 12 smokestack companies made its debut in the year 1896. Over the year DJIA became an important business barometer and grew to encompass 30 large industrial companies.

The DJIA is still one of the world’s best known stock measures and consists of 30 largest and most liquid blue chip stocks in the US. The average is maintained by the editors of the Wall Street Journal.

The DJIA unlike the S&P 500, Nasdaq-100 or Russell 3000 Indexes is a price weighted average. Recently Microsoft and Intel were added to the DJIA. The highest price issues hold the most influence over the average.

A 1 percent move in a $90 Microsoft stock would have a greater impact than a 1 percent move in a $30 Intel stock. ETFs exit on many Dow Indexes like the DJIA, the Dow Jones Total Market Index, the Dow Jones Global Titan Index and various sector indexes.

Wilshire flagship index is the Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index. Wilshire serves over 400 organizations in over 20 countries representing over $2 trillion in assets.

Over the years, it has increased to 6500 issues representing the increase in the number of companies in the US. It represents the broadest index for the US equity markets.

The Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) database contains nearly 25,000 securities covering 50 countries. It calculates nearly 3,000 indexes daily and services a client base of over 1,200 worldwide. One of the advantages of MCSI and its foreign indexes is consistency.

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General Mills, the maker of Cheerios,Yoplait,Betty Crocker and other snack products reported earnings for their fiscal fourth quarter and fiscal 2009 before the bell this morning. For the fiscal year of 2009 net sales were us 8 percent to $14.7 billion and earnings per share excluding special items rose 13 percent to $3.98, well above analysts consensus estimates. For the fourth quarter ‘09 net income was $358.8 million or $1.07 per share, above the estimated .81 cents per share. The stock finished the day up 2.16 or 3.86% to close at 58.18 per share. The stock has been on a consistent climb since hitting March lows of around $46, but is still well off of its 52 week high of $72 per share set last September.

Constellation Brands, the largest wine company in the world, announced its fiscal first quarter 2010 results this morning. The company reporting net income of $6.5 million or 3 cents per share well off of its $44.6 million profit in the same quarter a year ago. The companies stock was positive on the day by 7.33% up to 13.61 per share after the company reiterated its profit outlook for the full fiscal year. “We are generally pleased with our quarterly results, which were in-line with our expectations,” said Robert Sands President and CEO in the earnings press release, “we took steps over the past 18 months to shift the focus of our strategy to building must-have brands that return the greatest profits and that represent good value for consumers.” The full press release is available on their website.

Today the ADP employment report was released and was a bigger number than predicted. The report came in with 473,000 jobs lost during the month of June, this was much higher than analyst estimates of 394,000. The report showed the rate of job cuts slowed slightly from Mays 485,000 number, but was still a sign that the recession may drag out longer than people had hoped. The ISM Manufacturing number, a survey of over three hundred manufacturing firms on different aspects of their business, was released on Wednesday and came in at 44.8. This was the highest reading for the Index since last August and slightly higher than the average estimates of analysts of 44.5.

Motor vehicle sales for June were also reported by major automakers on Wednesday afternoon. Ford (F) had its smallest drop this year with sales falling 11% last month. It was a different story for Chrysler had a 42% drop in auto sales, Toyota (TM) reported a 32% fall and Nissan (NSANY) had a 23% dip in the month of June. Despite those numbers Ford (F) shares were down 2.6% on the day, while Toyota and Nissan posted only modest declines of 0.3% and 0.6%.

Software company LogMeIn went public today in an uncertain ipo market and was trading higher throughout the day. The company makes on demand remote connectivity solutions for small and medium size businesses. The offering was for 6,666,667 shares of common stock and was priced at $16 per share, which was the high end of the range. LogMeIn (LOGM) expects to make $107 million on the offering which was trading above the $20 per share level in early afternoon action. The book managers for the offering were JP Morgan Securities and Barclays Capital Inc.

Tomorrow is the now much more anticipated release of the initial jobless claims report. After the ADP report negative surprise no doubt analysts are revising their estimates. The initial jobless claims is a weekly report put out by the US Department of Labor on the number of individuals filing for unemployment for the first time. The consensus estimates on Wall Street were for 620,000 new applicants. But equity investors should expect this number to be higher around 625,000-626,000. Several small companies will be reporting earnings tomorrow Methode Electronics, Inc. symbol MEI estimate -0.16, Acuity Brands, Inc. symbol AYI estimate 0.57, MSC Industrial Direct Co. symbol MSM estimate 0.38 symbol MSCI Inc. symbol MXB estimate 0.24 per share. The earnings releases should not have any effect on the overall markets or the individual company sectors.

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Despite Tuesdays losses the Dow still finished the second quarter with a gain of 838.08 or 11.01%. It was one of the best quarters for the Dow in more than five years. Because of the negative first quarter the Dow Jones is still negative year to date by 3.8%. The Standard and Poors 500 index had its best percentage gain in a quarter in over a decade, tacking on more than 15%, but year to date the index is only up by 1.8%. The technology heavy Nasdaq has been the best performer over both periods gaining 20.1% in the second quarter and 16.4% on the year. Some of the best performing stocks on the quarter were Genworth Financial (GNW), Office Depot (ODP) and Ak Steel (AKS). Some of the worst performing stocks were KeyCorp (KEY), CIT Group (CIT) and Eastman Kodak (EK).

Sealy Corporation the largest global manufacturer of bedding, reported their second quarter earnings after the close today. Net sales were $298.5 million down from the $375.4 million in the same period a year ago. The net loss turned out to be 0.06 cents per diluted share and was below analysts estimates. The company cited a very difficult retail environment and said they expected a challenging retail environment moving forward. The stock (ZZ) was unchanged on the day at $1.96 per share.

Trading volumes have been increasingly dropping since May but after the big consumer confidence surprise trading may step up over the next couple days on the release of more economic data. For Wednesday we have the ADP report, motor vehicle sales, the ISM Manufacturing Index and Construction Spending among others.

The motor vehicle sales report is another measure of consumer spending and is the unit sales of domestically produced cars and light duty trucks. A bullish number here is viewed by stock traders to signify economic growth.

The ADP report is an employment report representing 24 million U.S. employees in the private sector (non government). It is typically released the day before the Bureau of Labor Statistic’s non farm payroll report. The employment statistics also shows data on wage trends and wage inflation helping the federal reserve in determining monetary policy.

The Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing Index surveys over 300 manufacturing firms on different aspects of business including employment, inventories, production, and new orders. Readings above 50 indicate an expanding factory sector. May’s number was 42.8 and the estimates for June are for an increase to around 45.

For tomorrow (Wednesday July 1) if any of these economic releases drastically surprise in either direction we could see an increase in volume going into the July 4 holiday. Also six companies will report their earnings tomorrow including Constellation Brands Inc. (STZ) estimates are for 0.32 cents per share and General Mls Inc. (GIS) estimates are for 0.80 cents per share.

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The earnings season is also creeping up on us and the largest tax preparer H and R Block reported today. The companies earnings were better than most stock traders were expecting saying in their press release that income from continuing operations grew to $513 million or 15%. Their earnings per share grew to $1.53 up from $1.36 in the same quarter last year. Their consolidated net income increased to $1.45 per share or $486 million after reporting a loss for the same period last year. They said earnings for the full year 2010 from continuing operations were expected to be $1.60 to $1.80 per share. They closed at 15.67 per share up around .25 or 1.62% around its highs for the day, it is still down nearly 33% year to date.

The other report stock traders were focused on was Apollo Group, Inc. which reported its third quarter fiscal 2009 results. Apollo Group is a company primary focused on higher education for working adults and runs colleges such as the University Of Phoenix and Western International University. Some of the highlights of their press release were posting their first quarterly revenue of over $1 billion a 26% increase over the same period last year. Apollo reported $201 million in net income on revenue of $1.05 billion for the three months ending May 31, 2009. The company had a third quarter profit of $1.26 per share significantly higher than the .85 cents per share they reported in the year ago period. Also well above analyst consensus estimates of 1.12 per share. The stock opened the day slightly higher but then dropped more 3.6% ahead of the news to close at 65.99 per share. After the bell Apollo Group jumped 5.3% and was trading around 69.53. Look for that good size pop to follow through on Tuesday.

Stock markets on Monday saw a decline in trading volume since the couple large moves last week and should continue the lazy summer trading tomorrow. Tuesdays most popular earnings release will be Sealy Corporation which analysts expected to make 0.04 cents per share. For Tuesday June 30 stock market investors will also be watching the release of the Chicago PMI (Purchasing Managers Index). The Chicago PMI is a survey released by the Institute of Supply Management surveying manufacturing and non-manufacturing business conditions in the Chicago area. Numbers above 50 percent indicate an expanding business sector. Stock traders are looking for healthy economic growth the thinking being that means corporate profits will be higher. While bond traders look for moderate growth that won’t create inflation. May’s number was weaker than expected at 34.9 and the consensus for June is estimated to be 40.

The other economic release traders will be watching is the consumer confidence number. The Conference Board surveys five thousand consumers across the country and asks them about their attitudes and expectations of the economy. Consumer spending is two thirds of the economy so their confidence directly and significantly affects economic growth. Stock market bulls want a high number which would mean higher corporate profits, while bond traders are always worried about excessive inflation should the consumer be overconfident. The number for May was 54.9 a major jump off the April level of 40.8 and the consensus estimate for June is 57.

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The earnings season is also creeping up on us and the largest tax preparer H and R Block reported today. The companies earnings were better than most stock traders were expecting saying in their press release that income from continuing operations grew to $513 million or 15%. Their earnings per share grew to $1.53 up from $1.36 in the same period last year. Their consolidated net income increased to $1.45 per share or $486 million after reporting a loss for the same period last year. They said earnings for the full year 2010 from continuing operations were expected to be $1.60 to $1.80 per share. They closed at 15.67 per share up around .25 or 1.62% around its highs for the day, it is still down nearly 33% year to date.

The other report stock traders were focused on was Apollo Group, Inc. which reported its third quarter fiscal 2009 results. Apollo Group is a company primary focused on higher education for working adults and runs colleges such as the University Of Phoenix and Western International University. Some of the bullet points of their press release were posting their first quarterly revenue of over $1 billion a 26% increase over the same period last year. Apollo reported $201 million in net income on revenue of $1.05 billion for the three months ending May 31, 2009. The company had a third quarter profit of $1.26 per share significantly higher than the .85 cents per share they reported in the year ago period. Also well above analyst consensus estimates of 1.12 per share. The stock opened the day slightly higher but then dropped more 3.6% ahead of the news to close at 65.99 per share. After the bell Apollo Group jumped 5.3% and was trading around 69.53. Look for that good size pop to follow through on Tuesday.

Stock markets on Monday saw a decline in trading volume since the couple large moves last week and should continue the lazy summer trading tomorrow. Tuesdays most popular earnings release will be Sealy Corporation which analysts expected to make 0.04 cents per share. For Tuesday June 30 stock market investors will also be watching the release of the Chicago PMI (Purchasing Managers Index). The Chicago PMI is a survey released by the Institute of Supply Management surveying manufacturing and non-manufacturing business conditions in the Chicago area. Numbers above 50 percent indicate an expanding business sector. Stock investors are looking for healthy economic growth the thinking being that means corporate profits will be higher. While bond traders look for moderate growth that won’t create inflation. May’s number was weaker than expected at 34.9 and the consensus for June is estimated to be 40.

The other economic release traders will be watching is the consumer confidence number. The Conference Board surveys five thousand consumers across the country and asks them about their attitudes and expectations of the economy. Consumer spending is two thirds of the economy so their confidence directly and significantly affects economic growth. Stock market investors want a high number which would mean higher corporate profits, while bond traders are always worried about excessive inflation should the consumer be overconfident. The number for May was 54.9 a major jump off the April level of 40.8 and the consensus estimate for June is 57.

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The earnings season is also creeping up on us and the largest tax preparer H and R Block reported today. The companies earnings were better than most stock traders were expecting saying in their press release that income from continuing operations grew to $513 million or 15%. Their earnings per share grew to $1.53 up from $1.36 in the same quarter last year. Their consolidated net income increased to $1.45 per share or $486 million after reporting a loss for the same period last year. They said earnings for the full year 2010 from continuing operations were expected to be $1.60 to $1.80 per share. They closed at 15.67 per share up around .25 or 1.62% around its highs for the day, it is still down nearly 33% year to date.

The other report stock traders were focused on was Apollo Group, Inc. which reported its third quarter fiscal 2009 results. Apollo Group is a company primary focused on higher education for working adults and runs colleges such as the University Of Phoenix and Western International University. Some of the most important parts of their press release were posting their first quarterly revenue of over $1 billion a 26% increase over the same period last year. Apollo reported $201 million in net income on revenue of $1.05 billion for the three months ending May 31, 2009. The company had a third quarter profit of $1.26 per share significantly higher than the .85 cents per share they reported in the year ago period. Also well above analyst consensus estimates of 1.12 per share. The stock opened the day slightly higher but then dropped more 3.6% ahead of the news to close at 65.99 per share. After the bell Apollo Group jumped 5.3% and was trading around 69.53. Look for that good size pop to follow through on Tuesday.

Stock markets on Monday saw a drop in trading volume since the couple large moves last week and should continue the lazy summer trading tomorrow. Tuesdays most popular earnings release will be Sealy Corporation which analysts expected to make 0.04 cents per share. For Tuesday June 30 stock market investors will also be watching the release of the Chicago PMI (Purchasing Managers Index). The Chicago PMI is a survey released by the Institute of Supply Management surveying manufacturing and non-manufacturing business conditions in the Chicago area. Numbers above 50 percent indicate an expanding business sector. Stock market investors are looking for healthy economic growth the thinking being that means corporate profits will be higher. While bond traders look for moderate growth that won’t create inflation. May’s number was weaker than expected at 34.9 and the consensus for June is estimated to be 40.

The other economic release traders will be watching is the consumer confidence number. The Conference Board surveys five thousand consumers across the country and asks them about their attitudes and expectations of the economy. Consumer spending is two thirds of the economy so their confidence directly and significantly affects economic growth. Stock market bulls want a high number which would mean higher corporate profits, while bond traders are always worried about excessive inflation should the consumer be overconfident. The number for May was 54.9 a major jump off the April level of 40.8 and the consensus estimate for June is 57.

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The earnings season is also creeping up on us and the largest tax preparer H and R Block reported today. The companies earnings were better than most stock traders were expecting saying in their press release that income from continuing operations grew to $513 million or 15%. Their earnings per share grew to $1.53 up from $1.36 in the same quarter last year. Their consolidated net income increased to $1.45 per share or $486 million after reporting a loss for the same period last year. They said earnings for the full year 2010 from continuing operations were expected to be $1.60 to $1.80 per share. They closed at 15.67 per share up around .25 or 1.62% around its highs for the day, it is still down nearly 33% year to date.

The other report stock traders were focused on was Apollo Group, Inc. which reported its third quarter fiscal 2009 results. Apollo Group is a company primary focused on higher education for working adults and runs colleges such as the University Of Phoenix and Western International University. Some of the bullet points of their press release were posting their first quarterly revenue of over $1 billion a 26% increase over the same period last year. Apollo reported $201 million in net income on revenue of $1.05 billion for the three months ending May 31, 2009. The company had a third quarter profit of $1.26 per share significantly higher than the .85 cents per share they reported in the year ago period. Also well above analyst consensus estimates of 1.12 per share. The stock opened the day slightly higher but then dropped more 3.6% ahead of the news to close at 65.99 per share. After the bell Apollo Group jumped 5.3% and was trading around 69.53. Look for that good size pop to follow through on Tuesday.

Stock markets on Monday saw a decline in trading volume since the couple large moves last week and should continue the lazy summer trading tomorrow. Tuesdays most popular earnings release will be Sealy Corporation which analysts expected to make 0.04 cents per share. For Tuesday June 30 stock market investors will also be watching the release of the Chicago PMI (Purchasing Managers Index). The Chicago PMI is a survey released by the Institute of Supply Management surveying manufacturing and non-manufacturing business conditions in the Chicago area. Numbers above 50 percent indicate an expanding business sector. Stock market investors are looking for healthy economic growth the thinking being that means corporate profits will be higher. While bond traders look for moderate growth that won’t create inflation. May’s number was weaker than expected at 34.9 and the consensus for June is estimated to be 40.

The other economic release traders will be watching is the consumer confidence number. The Conference Board surveys five thousand consumers across the country and asks them about their attitudes and expectations of the economy. Consumer spending is two thirds of the economy so their confidence directly and significantly affects economic growth. Stock market traders want a high number which would mean higher corporate profits, while bond traders are always worried about excessive inflation should the consumer be overconfident. The number for May was 54.9 a major jump off the April level of 40.8 and the consensus estimate for June is 57.

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Oil prices have mirrored how stock markets have been trading over the last few months and were down 1.07 on Friday, ending the week at 69.16 a barrel. That contributed to losses in energy stocks on Friday with Chevon (CVX.N) down 1.4 percent to 146.74 ending the week down 1.13 points or 1.68 percent and Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM.N) dropping 1.2 percent to 69.05 a share putting the stock in the red for the week by 1.05 points or 1.49 percent. The Dow ended down 1.2 percent on the week after several relatively volatile sessions and is now down 4.1 percent over the past two weeks.

The Standard and Poor’s 500 Index on Friday closed flat losing just 1.36 points or 0.1 percent to finish at 918.90. The S & P was down 0.25 percent on the week. The Standard and Poors Index continued with its sideways trading and is still relatively flat on the year hovering around the 900 level for the past 6 months.

The Nasdaq managed to hang on to slight gains on Friday up 8.68 points or 0.5 percent finishing the week at 1838.22. The Nasdaq while basically flat, did manage to squeak out a 0.59 percent gain for the week overall. The tech heavy index was partially boosted by Palm (PALM) reporting a smaller than expected loss and strong demand for its new Palm Pre smartphone and Palm webOS. Palm shares were up 2.2 dollars a share or 15.69 percent with more than five times greater than average volume. The market news prompted analysts and traders to move up Palms expected return to profitablity by serveral quarters.

For next week traders will be looking at the monthly unemployment rate which is expected to rise above its May level of 9.4 percent. With the heart of earnings season still a couple weeks away and a shortened week because of the July 4th holiday, stocks should continue a relatively sideways momentum. In addition the volatility index or .VIX has been trading at low levels not seen since last September just before Lehman Brothers announced its bankruptcy, which barring any major surprises should add to the probability of a quiet trading week.

Some of the larger companies reporting earnings next week (June 29 – July 2)that could move the market are: H & R Block (HRB), Apollo Group (APOL), Sealy Corp (ZZ), General Mills Inc (GIS) and Constellation Brands (STZ). The economic data releases that analysts will be following next week are: Tuesday – Consumer Confidence, Chicago PMI, Wednesday – Motor Vehicle Sales, ADP Employment Report, ISM Mfg Index, Construction Spending and Pending Home Sales, Thursday – Jobless Claims.

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We all know that it’s impossible to truly forecast the future, but with use of technical analysis, we can observe prevailing market direction and attempt to ride the wave.

So why do we care about the current market direction? Well, think of trading like swimming in a river, you can swim with the current or against it; in either case you are performing the activity of swimming, but swimming with the current is much easier, and you’ll probably be more successful getting to where your going.

When determining the trend there are three possible outcomes; up, down, and sideways. The good news here is that we start this process with a 33.3% chance of being right, even if we were to randomly choose one of the three potential outcomes. To better our chances of being right, we’re going to add a few simple steps to our process.

To start our observation we must decide on a timeframe, are we trading short-term trends where we will be in and out of a position quickly (like a few days to a few weeks), medium-term trends where we may maintain a position from a few weeks to a couple of months, or are we investing for the long-term with a buy-and-hold strategy. Once we’ve determined our timeframe, this is the length of the trend we want to study.

The first step in assessing the trend is absurdly simple… pull up your favorite charting software, or surf on over to your favorite financial website and pull up a chart of your favorite stock. Next, set the chart timeframe to the timeframe we determined above. Finally, compare the first price on the chart to the last price on the chart (or if the chart allows, draw a straight line from one to the other); the price will either be trending up, down, or relatively sideways. Simple enough right? We could stop here but in nearly every instance of technical analysis we want to use some sort of confirming indicator.

The confirming indicator we’re going to use today is volume; the amount of daily trading in a certain index, sector, security, etc. In many cases, the charting package or financial website chart will already have a volume chart displayed below the price chart. Spotting the trend in volume is the same as for spotting the trend in price; simply compare the first value on the volume chart with the last value on the chart… unfortunately in many cases the trend won’t be as clear, especially for longer timeframes.

To summarize the use of these two indicators together, let’s explore all the potential outcomes.

Price up and volume up = strong upward trend
Price up and volume down = upward trend that may turn downward
Price up and volume sideways = weak upward trend

Price down and volume up = strong downward trend
Price down and volume down = downward trend that may turn upward
Price down and volume sideways = weak downward trend

Price sideways and volume up = sideways trend that may turn upward
Price sideways and volume down = sideways trend that may turn downward
Price sideways and volume sideways = sideways trend

At this point we have determined the trend for a single stock, but this isn’t really the whole process that should take place. Ideally this process would be done with the equity you are interested in, followed by the sector that the equity belongs to, and finally to the index the sector is in. As above, explore all of the potential outcomes of up, down, and sideways results. Doing this type of research and comparing the results will give a much better indication of the strength and direction of the trend.

The method we’ve discussed in this article for determining market trends is simple, easy to use and understand, and intended as a starting point for beginning investors. There are countless other methods and technical indicators we could use or add to the charts, but we’ll leave those for another day.

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